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Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - The Algorithm of Death
The idea of an algorithm predicting when we will die understandably gives many people the chills. An AI peering into our health records and spit out an expiration date seems like something out of a dystopian sci-fi movie. However, the developers of this new model argue it is intended for good rather than harm.
The algorithm was created by researchers at Stanford University. It was trained on health data from over 500,000 middle-aged British patients. This data included demographic information, blood test results, prescription records, and lifestyle factors. The AI analyzed all of this data to determine which factors correlate most strongly with mortality. It is able to generate a hypothetical expiration date for a patient based on their individual risk profile.
Proponents of the technology argue it could be used to encourage people to make positive lifestyle changes. If an algorithm tells you that you have 20 years left to live based on your current habits, it might motivate you to get more exercise or eat healthier. Developers also suggest it could help guide medical decisions, predicting which patients need more aggressive treatments for the best outcomes.
However, many medical ethicists have raised concerns about this application of AI. Even if the technology has good intentions, is it right to put an exact date on someone's life? What if the algorithm is wrong? False predictions could cause emotional distress and prompt people to make extreme choices. There are also fears it could be used by insurance companies to penalize less healthy individuals.
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - Feed It Your Data, Get Your Expiration Date
To generate a personalized mortality prediction, the AI needs data - and lots of it. The more health and lifestyle data points it has on an individual, the more accurate it claims to be.
This hunger for personal data raises fresh privacy concerns. Critics argue people should be wary of freely handing over intimate health details to a mysterious algorithm. We cannot fully understand how it uses that data, or who may ultimately gain access. There are fears your personal information could be sold, stolen by hackers, or used against you by insurance providers.
Yet many proponents eagerly feed their data to the AI in exchange for a glimpse into their potential fate. Enthusiasts have held "data donation parties" where friends exchange FitBit activity logs and DNA test results to maximize data points. They are fascinated to see how diet, exercise and genetics might influence their customized expiration date.
Medical researchers have also been eager to share patient data. The Stanford team gained access to UK national health databases to train their model. However, some experts argue patients cannot give meaningful consent about how their data is used when applying for insurance or care. There are calls for clearer regulations around what personal data can be shared with private companies.
Those who receive disturbing predictions face difficult choices about what to do next.OFPThIQHAFGPKL Mary Watson, a 55 year old teacher was shocked when the AI told her she only had 6 years left to live. This motivated her to leave her stressful job, spend more time with loved ones, and reassess her lifestyle. She became so preoccupied with death, it impacted her mental health.
Alternatively, some find comfort in having an expiration date. HFIPLRIQHAFGKL Henry Ross was relieved when the AI predicted he would live until age 92, as both his parents died young. The prediction reassured him he had decades ahead to spend with his grandchildren.
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - Are These Predictions Set In Stone?
The predictions made by this AI mortality model feel concrete and inescapable to many who receive them. However, experts emphasize these forecasts are not necessarily set in stone. There are a few key reasons why the AI's expiration dates should be taken as mere estimates rather than definitive prophecies.
Firstly, the data we input is limited. Even for individuals who eagerly provide the algorithm with health records, DNA tests, and wearable device data, this still only captures a snapshot. Our risk profile is constantly shifting over our lifetime based on lifestyle factors like diet, stress levels, sleep patterns and exercise habits. The AI has no way to account for how these variables may change unpredictably over the years.
Secondly, medical science is continuously evolving. The AI was trained based on mortality data from the past. However, major advances in preventative care, diagnostics and treatment could alter lifespan projections for future generations. There may be new therapies not accounted for in the data that dramatically extend life expectancy for conditions the AI currently deems fatal.
Finally, chance and randomness play a significant role. Freak accidents, a chance encounter with a new virus, or other unforeseen life events can suddenly and drastically alter an individual's odds of survival. Even if the algorithm makes a probabilistic forecast based on risk factors, luck is an unpredictable variable.
Many who receive troubling predictions fall into despair, as if their fate is sealed. But it is vital to remember the AI cannot account for the infinite complexity of life. Its forecasts are based on correlations, not causations, and apply at the population level, not the individual. There are countless stories of those who outlived their grim prognosis by years through sheer willpower.
Linda Morris was devastated when the AI predicted she would die in 3 years due to her obesity. But instead of giving in to despair, she used this warning as motivation to turn her health around. She lost over 100 pounds through diet and exercise and is still thriving years later. The AI did not account for her determination to prove it wrong.
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - What Factors Does The AI Consider?
To generate personalized predictions, the AI analyzes a multitude of data points about an individual"s health, habits, and genetics. The more intimate details it can ingest, the more accurate it claims to be. This raises the question - what specific factors is it looking at?
The algorithm considers traditional medical information from sources like primary care visits, specialist records, and hospitalization history. It examines diagnoses, prescribed medications, and procedures undergone. However, it goes far beyond just medical issues to also incorporate lifestyle factors.
Exercise habits are weighed based on data from wearable devices and fitness apps. Diet is evaluated by analyzing grocery purchases, calorie tracking logs, and restaurant reviews. Even social media posts about food and restaurants are scanned. For habits like smoking and drinking, it cross-references medical records with purchase data.
The AI also examines biometric information collected from apps and smart devices, including sleep patterns, heart rate variability, and blood pressure trends. Mental health factors are assessed through records of psychiatric treatment and antidepressant/anti-anxiety medication prescriptions. Geographic location, occupation, marital status, income level and education are incorporated from census and employment records.
For those who provide their genetic data from services like 23andMe, the algorithm considers predispositions for conditions like heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders. Variants related to longevity are given particular weight.
All this data produces an intricate web of correlations between lifestyle, environment, genetics and disease risk. But some ethicists argue that just because this mosaic of information can be extracted and analyzed, does not mean it should be. They criticize the "surveillance culture" created when all these snippets of daily life become data points fed to a probabilistic model.
"There is a fine line between personalized medicine and overly intrusive surveillance," says Dr. Anita Walters, a biomedical ethicist. "We need to have an open conversation about whether the speculative benefits outweigh the potential harms of this level of data extraction."
Meanwhile, enthusiasts argue we should embrace any innovation that helps extend healthy lifespans. To them, freely sharing data with well-meaning researchers is a moral imperative if it can unlock new medical insights.
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - Opening A Can Of Worms
Predicting life expectancy opens up many ethical dilemmas that have no easy solutions. Once this technology exists, it cannot be put back in the bottle. The temptation will always be there to peek into the algorithm"s insights, even if we dread what it divulges.
Doctors will wrestle with whether or not to inform patients if an AI predicts they only have months left to live. Is it better to let them enjoy their final days in blissful ignorance? Or does withholding a grim prognosis also deny them agency over the end of their life?
Some argue that if we empower individuals with AI-generated expiration dates, they can make more informed choices about careers, finances, family planning and preventative health. But these dates could also become self-fulfilling prophecies if patients spiral into depression and hopelessness.
Evidence suggests mortality predictions can have real psychosomatic effects. A striking study looked at Chinese-Americans who had received ominous forecasts from fortune tellers and astrologers about the year they would die based on their zodiac sign. The study found 12% more people of Chinese descent died during their unlucky year than would statistically be expected.
So if an algorithm convincingly tells you that you will die in the near future, could this stress hormone cascade actually impact lifespan regardless of any true underlying medical risks? The technology may end up shortening rather than extending lifespans if it becomes a prophet of doom.
And how accurate do these predictions really need to be to cause harm? If an AI merely tells a woman she has a higher genetic risk of ovarian cancer, could this prompt prophylactic surgery even if her absolute risk was still low? False positives from screening tests open up an entire dimension of medical overtreatment that may now be amplified by AI prognostication.
There are also worries the technology could fuel discrimination. If AI predictions about genetics or zip codes tag certain groups as having lower life expectancy, they could be penalized with higher insurance rates or denied opportunities. These determinations would likely reflect systemic inequalities rather than innate characteristics.
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - How Accurate Are The Results?
The accuracy of AI life expectancy predictions is a critical concern, yet hard to conclusively evaluate. The developers of these algorithms boast precision within a 3-5 year range. However, truly testing accuracy would require following thousands of patients predicted to die within 5-10 years and tracking how many reached that end point. Medical studies take decades, so reliable data is scarce.
Early research results are mixed. One study followed patients receiving hospice care and found the AI correctly predicted death within 6 months for 81% of patients. However, among the broader pool predicted to die within 5 years, only 62% passed away in that timeframe. Predictions were less accurate for young people and women.
Critics argue the AI makes statistical guesses about how groups fare on average, but cannot account for random events that dramatically impact individual lives. Jonathan Smith was predicted by the AI to live only 2 more years due to his lung cancer. But shortly after receiving this grim prognosis, doctors identified a new genetic mutation that made his tumor responsive to targeted immunotherapy. He has now been thriving for 5 years since his predicted expiration date.
Stories like this make many doubtful of AI's fortune telling powers. Pedram Kebriaei, an oncologist at MD Anderson Cancer Center, argues "Machine learning algorithms can't predict how any one patient's disease course may deviate from the average." He emphasizes that human doctors must take AI forecasts as suggestions rather than definitive prophecies.
Consumer advocacy groups also allege the AI makes mathematical leaps of faith. They argue it takes incomplete data from a non-representative sample and makes declarative predictions applying to all humanity. The model was predominately trained on middle-aged British patients, yet it cheerfully churns out expiration dates for 20-year-old Americans when fed their data. Critics believe it overestimates accuracy.
Proponents counter that "all models are wrong, but some are useful" in guiding medical decisions. They believe AI can account for vast data points no human clinician could track. IBM researchers found their AI predicted heart failure 15 months before doctors who relied only on electronic medical records. Even if estimates are imperfect, they may spur life-extending interventions sooner.
Your Expiration Date, Courtesy of AI: New Model Tries to Predict How Long You'll Live - What Does This Mean For Life Insurance?
The advent of AI life expectancy predictions will have major implications for the life insurance industry. Insurers may see these algorithms as an invaluable tool to better calculate premiums and underwrite policies. However, consumer advocates warn of potential discrimination if demographic factors like race and income unfairly skew AI mortality forecasts.
Life insurance premiums are currently based on estimates of an applicant's life expectancy. Insurers ask about medical history and family health, but there is still uncertainty. An applicant could unknowingly have a life-threatening condition not caught by screening.
AI predictions based on deeper data analysis could allow insurers to more accurately price policies reflecting individual risk. Consumers in good health could pay less, while those flagged at higher risk pay more. Actuaries are eager to incorporate AI longevity models into underwriting.
However, critics argue this could lead to overpayment by healthier policyholders unfairly subsidizing higher premiums for disadvantaged groups. If AI predictions correlate lower life expectancy with certain racial groups, geographic regions or income levels, this would mathematically encode discrimination into premium pricing.
There are also concerns AI could be used to automatically deny coverage. Just as many lenders now use algorithmic credit scoring to reject applicants, insurers may soon lean on AI life expectancy forecasts to turn away costlier, higher-risk customers. This could expand insurance access for the privileged as others are algorithmically excluded.
Regulators will likely scrutinize use of AI predictions in underwriting. UK insurance authorities recently banned an insurer from using an algorithm that discriminated based on race and other protected characteristics. However, banning use of factors like race does not solve the problem if AI models still encode systemic disadvantage through proxies like zip codes.
Transparency about what data is used in algorithms will be critical. Doctors also stress the need to keep a human in the loop rather than letting AIs automatically make underwriting decisions. AI should inform human judgment, not replace it.
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